FOOD SECURITY SNAPSHOT
Planting of 2016 wheat crop in progress under mostly favourable conditions
Rice production in 2015 forecast to decrease
Reduced wheat imports forecast in 2015/16 marketing year (May/April)
Prices of wheat and wheat flour declined in February and well below year-earlier levels
Overall food security conditions stable but localized food insecurity persists
Planting of 2016 wheat crop in progress under mostly favourable conditions
Planting of the 2016, mostly irrigated, ‘’rabi’’ (winter) wheat crop is currently underway. The official planting intentions survey points to a 2 percent year-on-year contraction to 8.98 million hectares. The reduction reflects high production costs, ample stocks and the Government decision to leave minimum support prices unchanged this year.
However, despite this, the early official forecast of production in 2016 points to a record output of 26 million tonnes, 3 percent up from the 2015 bumper level, under expectations that good water availability in the main reservoirs and adequate supply of quality seeds, fertilizers and herbicides will increase average yields.
Rice production in 2015 forecast to decrease
Harvesting of the 2015 rainfed “kharif” season crops, mostly rice and maize, is currently underway and is expected to be concluded in early December. Latest official estimates put the 2015 rice production at 9.9 million tonnes, 6 percent below the 2014 record level. The forecast decrease is largely due to a 5 percent contraction in area planted in response to large stocks and high production costs. Localized floods across northern and northeastern parts of the country, following heavy rains in July and August, caused only minor damage to crops. FAO’s latest forecast puts the 2015 aggregate maize production similar to last year’s good level of 4.6 million tonnes. Final official estimates of the 2015 wheat crop, harvested by mid-June, put output at 25.5 million tonnes, 2 percent below last year’s record and 4 percent above the fiveyear average. The year-on-year decrease is attributed to slightly lower yields, following heavy rains in March, which affected standing crops in the final stages of development.
Reduced wheat imports forecast in 2015/16 marketing year (April/May)
Wheat imports for the 2015/16 marketing year (May/April) are forecast to decline to 250 000 tonnes from 741 000 tonnes in the previous year, in line with the 2015 good output and large carryover stocks. Rice exports for the 2015/16 marketing year (September/August) are forecast at 3.9 million tonnes, close to last year’s high level.