ABOUT THIS REPORT
The Famine Early Warning Systems Network (FEWS NET) monitors trends in staple food supply and price trends in countries at risk of food insecurity.
The Regional Supply and Market Outlook report provides a summary of regional staple food availability, surpluses and deficits during the current marketing year, projected price behavior, implications for local and regional commodity procurement and essential market monitoring indicators. FEWS NET gratefully acknowledges partner organizations, national ministries of agriculture, national market information systems, regional organizations, and others for their assistance in providing the harvest estimates, commodity balance sheets, as well as trade and price data used in this report. NOTE: “Central Asia” in this report refers to the countries of Afghanistan, Kazakhstan, Pakistan, and Tajikistan.
KEY MESSAGES
Regional wheat supplies in Central Asia are near the five year average and are expected to remain so over the 2015/2016 marketing year.
The structurally deficit countries of Afghanistan and Tajikistan are expected to meet their domestic wheat requirements through intra-regional trade with Pakistan and Kazakhstan.
In Tajikistan, wheat prices have reached record high levels (26 percent higher than average) and are projected to remain at the current high levels. The Tajik currency (Somoni) has depreciated by 27 percent against the USD over the past year due to reduced remittance inflows. Tajikistan is particularly reliant on food imports, thus the depreciation of the Somoni has been driving up food prices.
Wheat prices in Afghanistan and Pakistan are near average and are projected to be stable, while wheat prices in Kazakhstan are lower than average and are projected to remain lower than average.