Low snow accumulation and dry soil conditions likely to impact 2018 staple production
Key Messages
The weakening of the casual labor market since 2014 has made it more difficult for poor households to earn sufficient income to support dietary needs during the lean season. Furthermore, 2017 rainfed production was poor in some provinces, including in Ghor, Balkh, Jawzjan, Takhar, Badakhshan, Samangan, Herat, Baghlan, and Sar-i-Pul Provinces. Poor households affected by poor own production or who were not able to find sufficient employment to support food purchases are likely experiencing Crisis (IPC Phase 3) outcomes until local spring labor opportunities facilitate access to income and market purchases of food.
The ongoing conflict between various insurgent groups, primarily the Taliban and IS, and the Government of the Islamic Republic of Afghanistan has increased in geographic extent and severity in recent years, with more than 1.1 million people displaced since the beginning of 2016. Beyond displacement, insecurity has continued to disrupt normal livelihoods by limiting access to farms, rangelands, markets, and labor opportunities, and by reducing local economic activity. Although seasonal improvements in access to food and income will occur during the spring and summer months, displacement and reduced non-agricultural labor opportunities are expected to drive Stressed (IPC Phase 2) outcomes throughout much of the country during the scenario period, with many households in Crisis (IPC Phase 3).
Snow accumulation and cumulative precipitation were well below average for the season through February 2018, with some basins at or near record low snowpack, with data since 2002. Forecast models indicate a likelihood for below-average precipitation through the end of the season in May 2018, with elevated risk for prolonged periods of dryness. These factors will likely have an adverse impact on staple production in marginal irrigated areas and in many rainfed areas.
Due to below-average precipitation and extent of snow coverage, as well as forecasts for above-average temperatures during the spring and summer, rangeland conditions are expected to be poor during the period of analysis through September 2018. This could have an adverse impact on pastoralists and agro-pastoralists, particularly in areas where livestock movements are limited by conflict.