On 3 January 2018, Pakistan granted Afghan refugees in Pakistan a residence extension until the end of January. This is the shortest extension ever given to Afghan refugees in Pakistan and raises concerns of imminent large-scale forced returns. Some 1.39 million Afghan refugees are registered in Pakistan, as well as an estimated one million unregistered Afghans. If returns are enforced, it is likely to have a major impact on shelter, protection, and food needs. However, previous deadlines have been threatened but not enforced, reducing the probability of the risk.
Anticipated scope and scale
An increase in the number of forced returnees from Pakistan will likely result in significant humanitarian impact in Nangarhar, Kandahar and Kabul provinces, not only for returnees but also for existing IDPs and host communities, straining existing response capacities.
Forced returnees are very likely to face secondary displacement and therefore likely to face similar needs to current IDPs: shelter/NFIs, protection and food security.
Winter and ongoing insecurity are aggravating factors that are likely to worsen humanitarian needs and limit access.
Key priorities
- shelter/NFIs for new returnee arrivals
- secondary displacement of forced returnees
- protection concerns exacerbated
Humanitarian constraints
Ongoing hostilities severely limit access to the likely affected areas. Ensuring the safety of humanitarian workers remains a challenge in areas near the Afghanistan-Pakistan border. Winter conditions constrain access until at least March.