Flooding observed in Nigeria and heavy rain continues in Ethiopia, Sudan, and South Sudan
Below-average rainfall since mid-May has led to abnormal dryness across eastern Uganda and southwestern Kenya. Moisture deficits are likely to negatively impact cropping and Pastoral activities.
Repeated weeks of very heavy, above-normal rains have oversaturated the ground in parts of Ethiopia, Sudan, and South Sudan. More heavy rain during the next week is likely to cause further flooding.
Heavy downpours over the past week have resulted in flooding in Rivers State, Nigeria. Potential for flooding remains high as torrential rain is very likely to continue next week.
Africa Overview
Flooding observed in the Gulf of Guinea
Above-average rain fell over many areas of the Sahel this week. From July 17-23, downpours continued over Guinea-Conakry, eastern Senegal, western and eastern Mali. Torrential rain also fell over Togo, Benin, northwestern and the southern coastal areas of Nigeria (Figure 1). According to media reports, the rain last week destroyed many houses in areas of the Rivers State in Nigeria. While the favorable performance of the West African monsoon has benefitted agricultural and pastoral activities in many areas, excess moisture has also negatively impacted ground conditions in other areas.
Due to consistent rain over the past few weeks, positive rainfall anomalies were observed throughout much of West Africa, with some regions accumulating 100-500mm of rain above average over the past thirty days. These regions included Guinea-Conakry, Sierra Leone, southwestern Cote d’Ivoire, and southern Nigeria. In contrast, small negative rainfall anomalies were registered over localized areas of eastern and central Burkina Faso, south-central, and northeastern Nigeria.
Next week, heavy downpours are expected to continue over far western West Africa and southern Nigeria, which increases risk for flooding in the region. Moderate to heavy rain is forecast Source: NOAA/CPC across southern Mali, Burkina Faso, western and southern Niger, Nigeria, and southern Chad, while light rain is expected elsewhere.
Rainfall continues over much of Eastern Africa
Since late June to date, Eastern Africa has received average to above-average rain. Positive rainfall anomalies were observed in eastern Sudan, northeastern South Sudan, western Ethiopia, central Yemen, and northern Uganda. However, a few areas, including western South Sudan, localized areas of northeastern Uganda, and north-central Ethiopia, experienced slightly below-average rain over the past thirty days. Above-average rainfall could also lead to river flooding in areas of eastern Sudan and sustain risks for water-borne disease outbreaks in Yemen. Although rainfall totals were reduced last week compared to the previous week, moderate to heavy rain continued over western Ethiopia, southern Sudan, and northern South Sudan.
Next week, heavy and above-average rain is likely over western Ethiopia, which could raise river levels and cause flooding in eastern Sudan. Meanwhile, moderate to heavy rain is expected in the southern and western portions of Sudan, and South Sudan.