Eastern Mediterranean Route
The number of people arriving by sea to Europe sizeably fell in 2016, with only 362,376 recorded arrivals compared to 1,014,973 in 2015 (UNHCR, 2016). Numbers migrating along the Eastern Mediterranean route have also substantially decreased. In 2016, only 173,450 people – compared to 856,723 last year – crossed over by sea from Turkey to Greece. In fact, 87% of those arrivals occurred during the first three months of the year, before the signing of the EU-Turkey Statement. In addition, the Turkish Coast Guards reported a decrease in the number of interceptions (833 compared to 2,430 last year) and apprehensions (down by 60%) in 2016. Despite the reduction in arrivals, total figures for 2016 remain 3 times higher than yearly average arrivals between 2008-2014. According to IOM, as of February 8, 2017 approximately 74,909 refugees and migrants are stranded at the borders of Greece and the Western Balkans. In fact, this buildup has been gradually increasing as border controls across Europe have tightened even further. Since the March 2016, those stranded at the Greek and Bulgarian borders have increased by 47% and 443% respectively.
EU-Turkey Statement
As of February 2017, 894 people have been returned to Turkey as part of the EU-Turkey Statement and 386 under the already existing Greece-Turkey readmission agreement as of January 2017. Asylum seekers in Greece can be returned to Turkey if they do not apply for asylum or withdraw an asylum application in Greece; opt for an assisted return; after a negative asylum claim; and, lastly, when an asylum claim has been found ‘inadmissible’ – that is, on the grounds that Turkey is either a ‘safe first country’ (where a person has been recognised as a refugee or otherwise enjoys sufficient protection) or a ‘safe third country’ (namely, that Turkey can provide protection to the returned person).
Turkey’s status as a ‘safe third country’ has however been challenged in Greek courts throughout the year. In February 2017, the Greek Council of State (the Supreme Administrative Court) unanimously rejected two separate appeal cases by concluding that Turkey qualifies as a safe third country. For the moment, the issue has been referred to the grand Chamber of the Court for further consideration, where a final decision is expected to be made. However, if approved, the decision could potentially open the door for an accelerated returns process that would significantly increase the number of returnees from the EU.
Restrictions at the Turkish-Syrian border
Border restrictions continued in 2016 with Turkish Land Forces apprehending 424,641 individuals, 80% at the Syrian border. Construction of a concrete wall along the 911km Turkish-Syrian border continues, with plans to complete it by end of 2017. Of the nineteen official border crossing points between the two countries, only two (Cilvegozu and Oncupinar) are currently open for Syrians with emergency medical health needs. Despite the number of registered Syrians in Turkey rising to 2,841,036, there is a modest trend in return figures as 23,926 Syrians were reported to have returned to Jarablus during the last quarter of 2016. The Turkish government continues to advocate for a safe zone in Northern Syria where Syrians can return to, the latest effort through involvement in the evacuation of Eastern Aleppo and the construction of IDP camps in Idlib, Syria aimed at stemming flows into Turkey. This policy of assisting displaced populations within Syria is mostly evident in Jarablus and Azaz where Turkish authorities have increased reconstruction efforts aimed at laying the groundwork for voluntary return.