Early season rainfall and snow accumulation have been well below average
KEY MESSAGES
Conflict and civil insecurity remain the primary ongoing drivers of acute food insecurity, along with reduced employment opportunities as compared to recent years. The insecure environment has caused the internal displacement of more than 580,000 people in 2016, and has disrupted livelihoods activities for many more. Furthermore, an estimated 670,000 undocumented Afghanistan nationals have returned to the country from Pakistan, along with many more documented Afghan returnees from both Pakistan and Iran. Many of the displaced and returnees remain in need of humanitarian assistance as winter sets in.
Although conflict continues in most provinces, areas of greatest concern for conflict-related food insecurity include Nangarhar, Hilmand, Farah, Faryab, Badghis, Sari Pul, Kunduz,
Badakhshan, Baghlan, Jawzjan, and Zabul Provinces, where control measures on the movement of people and goods are limiting the ability of households to maintain their normal livelihood activities. These areas are likely to remain Stressed (IPC Phase 2) throughout the outlook period, with many of the most affected households in Crisis (IPC Phase 3).Precipitation from October 1 st through December 31 st, 2016 was well below average throughout most of the country (Figure 3). Due to the anticipated dissipation of the ongoing La Niña in early 2017, there remains a wide spread of possible precipitation outcomes for the peak of the wet season (January – April 2017).
Farmers in areas that are typically planted with winter wheat during the autumn delayed planting by approximately one month in many areas due to very poor soil moisture, particularly in northern, northeastern, and western regions.
Reports indicate that the area planted under rainfed winter wheat has been reduced as compared to recent years due to ongoing insecurity disrupting land preparation in some areas, and due to poor early season rainfall.