Source: Famine Early Warning System Network
Country: Afghanistan, Pakistan
Conflict-induced displacement and repatriation will lead to deteriorating outcomes this winter
Key Messages
- Household purchasing power has declined significantly in several markets, with casual labor to wheat flour terms of trade well below the five-year average in Mazar i Sharif (-26.4 percent), Faizabad (-23.9 percent), Maimana (-21.3 percent), Jalalabad (-16.5 percent), and Kandahar (-10.2 percent). The availability of casual labor has also decreased in most markets monitored since the start of data collection in 2014, with the greatest decline in Faizabad, followed by Kandahar and Nili.
- UN OCHA estimates indicate that 411,000 people have been displaced by conflict since January 2016, including displacements in all 34 provinces. According to IOM estimates for 2016, more than 180,000 undocumented Afghanistan nationals have entered the country from Pakistan, the majority of whom are not able to access assistance.
- Declining purchasing power and livelihoods disruption in many conflict-affected areas will contribute to increased food assistance needs as compared to recent years. Crisis (IPC Phase 3) outcomes are likely among newly displaced people and undocumented returnees from Pakistan, as well as among poor households in the Central Highlands and in northeastern agro-pastoral areas (Figure 3), particularly during the peak lean season (January – April).
- Due to prevailing sea surface temperature (SST) conditions in the Pacific Ocean, there is an increased probability for below-average precipitation in eastern and southern Afghanistan during the 2016/2017 wet season through May.