Key Trends:
Closing Borders: The borders surrounding Syria are becoming increasingly closed, limiting the ability of people within Syria to seek protection internationally. For Syrians today, very few legal routes to exit the country remain. Their situation is characterised by tightly controlled land borders, strict visa requirements to enter Lebanon, a recently closed Jordanian border, and visa requirements for entry to Turkey by sea or air. Declining Arrivals in Greece: June and July continue to mark significantly declining arrivals of refugees and other mixed migrants in Greece compared to the same months in 2015. Both months show a significant decrease from 2015 arrivals with June 2016 arrivals down 95.0% from the same month in 2015, and July arrivals down 96.5% from the same month in 2015. The European Commission points to the “sharp and continued decline” in irregular arrivals to Greece as evidence of the “successful implementation” of the EU-Turkey Agreement.
Limited Returns under the EU-Turkey Agreement: As of July 28, 2016 UNHCR reports that 468 people have been returned to Turkey from Greece since the implementation of the EU-Turkey agreement, only 31 of whom were Syrian. The number of returns are widely thought to be quite low, prompting media and commentators to describe the deal as ‘dying,’ ‘faltering,’ and ‘sputter[ing]’.
No Evidence of Shifting Routes: Despite the drastic decreases in arrivals by sea to Greece in recent months, there is no significant evidence to show that migration flows have shifted to the Central Mediterranean Route or elsewhere in June and July. The Central Mediterranean route (from North Africa to Italy) has shown increasing use with 23,552 arrivals recorded in Italy in July compared to 1,920 in Greece. This number, however, is consistent with arrival figures for Italy in 2015 and reflects an increase in summer usage of the route, noted in past years. As at July 31, 2016 IOM reported that 328 Syrians had arrived by sea in Italy in 2016, a 94% decrease from the 5,495 arrivals during the same period in 2015.
Jordanian Border Closure: Following a suicide bombing near the informal settlement at Rukban on June 21, Jordanian authorities declared the Northern and Northeastern borders with Syria and Iraq a closed militarized zone, effectively closing the border to Syrians and suspending humanitarian aid to the area. Estimates in July indicate that some 70,000 Syrians were stranded in the newly militarized zone at Jordan’s North-Eastern border with Syria, though WFP claims that this number could be as high as 100,000.
Arrivals of Afghans and Pakistanis in Greece: Afghan refugees are a key group among those leaving Turkey for Greece with a reported 416 arriving in Greece by sea in June and July 2016. The number of Pakistanis arriving in Greece is also notable as the 345 arrivals in July 2016 marked a 48% increase from arrivals in June. It remains to be seen if this trend will continue.
Syrians at the Turkish Border: An estimated 160,000 Syrians remain stranded in makeshift camps in Syria near the Turkish border. Authorities maintain that the border remains open for “emergency situations” though reports indicate it has been closed for 17 months.
Syrians in Iraq: As of June 30, 2016 there were 249,395 Syrians registered in Iraq marking an increase of 2,056 individuals (0.8%) since the last available figures on May 31, 2016. According to UNHCR, 2,261 Syrians crossed into KR-I at the Peshkhabour border in June of 2016. They were admitted on 15 day entry visas and barred access to asylum. Additionally 9 Syrians were deported from the Gawilan refugee camp despite UNHCR interventions.
Iraqis in Syria: As of June 30, 2016 more than 7,000 Iraqis had fled the escalating violence around the city of Mosul and arrived at the Syrian camp of Al-Hol, 14 km from the Iraqi border. On June 30 more than 5,000 Iraqis were still in the camp while others had used it as a point of transit or returned back to KR-I.
Returnees from Europe: Reports indicate a growing number of Iraqis voluntarily returning to Iraq after travelling to Europe and facing closed borders, unemployment, poor living conditions, disappointment and struggle. As of June 2016 nearly 300 Iraqi refugees had voluntarily returned from Greece, and ‘thousands’ more had returned from elsewhere in Europe, though no specific numbers were available. Additional reports indicate that some Syrians in Greece are paying smugglers to help them cross the Evros River in Northern Greece and irregularly enter Turkey. Syrians cite poor conditions, camp closures, and restricted access to other European countries as reasons for returning to Turkey, and for some, their country of origin.
This summary of inter and intra-regional displacement and displacement-induced mobility is produced by DRC Middle East and North Africa regional office drawing widely on available sources. It covers events, trends and data for the Middle East region (Syria, Jordan, Lebanon, Turkey, Iraq) and is accessible at https://drc.ngo/where-we-work/middle-east-and-north-africa
A note on terminology: Throughout this report the term migrant/refugee is used for all persons involved in mixed migration flows (including asylum seekers, trafficked persons, migrants, refugees) with the exception of Syrians who are recognised as persons in need of international protection. If the group mentioned refers only to refugees or asylum seekers or trafficked persons or migrants it will be clearly stated.
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