Background
In early 2015, a joint UNICEF/WFP research initiative supported by DFID and conducted by the Boston Consulting Group established that the average financial return on investment (ROI) for 49 humanitarian preparedness interventions analyzed in high risk contexts is more than 200%.
This means that every $1 spent on preparing is worth more than $2 in the event of an emergency. Preparedness was also shown to save responders more than one week of operational t ime on average- reach ing more people faster to save more lives.
What exactly did the study examine?
It analyzed how specific preparedness interventions impacted the time or costs of a future emergency response in high risk humanitarian contexts. The study assessed 49 specific programme and operational preparedness investments made by UNICEF and WFP in 2014 in three pilot countries- Chad, Madagascar and Pakistan.
Each of the investments represented an interventions the agencies took to support preparedness for an array of context-specific emergency scenarios. The activities can be broken down into four main categories: supplies & logistics, staff capacity, contingency partner arrangements, and infrastructure development.
How was the impact of preparedness measured?
Emergency scenarios defined: First, the research team worked with country office staff to determine 2-3 of most probable/imminent contextual risk scenarios. For example, staff in Chad identified food/nutrition crises, flooding and conflict scenarios as their highest risk scenarios. The likely geography of each crisis type was then mapped and assigned a realistic affected population caseload range, according to the intensity of the emergency shock.
Future risk parameters defined: Historical data and expert interviews were used to estimate the likely frequency and impact of each risk scenario occuring over a 1 0 year period- e.g. Level 2 food/nutrition crisis in Chad would be concentrated along central Sahel belt, affect X people and occur every X years.
Preparedness "counterfactual" scenario defined: Then, for every preparedness intervention taken, the research team asked "what would happen if there were no investments in this activity?"To answer this question, the team collected both historical evidence and expert analysis to define and quantify how future emergency response would differ according to whether advanced preparedness investments had been made. In situations where no historical data were available, the estimates of topical experts were used.
Time & cost return on analysis modeled: Using figures collected, the team created an excel-based financial/time model to calculate the impact (if any) of each investment on the cost and speed of a response for each emergency scenario, as measured in US$ and response days.