Highlights
· The growing season of May-October 2015 in east Asia is unfolding under an evolving El Nino event that will peak in late 2015.
· Below average rainfall has been the dominant feature of the 2015 season across East Asia, particularly from Myanmar across to southern Vietnam, where noticeable delays in the onset of the agricultural growing season have already been detected.
· After a timely and wetter than average start of the monsoon season, India has been affected by rainfall deficits from late June onwards. Stronger impacts are so far being felt in the western half of the country.
· Drier than average conditions and poor vegetation cover are also affecting the Korean peninsula and northeast China. In DPRK, this adds to the effects of a significantly drier than average season in 2014.
· In contrast, Afghanistan and Pakistan have so far enjoyed a favourable rainfall season, with high rainfall in the Pakistani highlands ensuring adequate irrigation.
· Seasonal forecasts indicate drier than average conditions for the August-October rainfall in India and southeast Asia.
· Much drier than average conditions are forecast for Indonesia, potentially leading to negative impacts on the main agricultural season starting in late 2015.